Does the conspiracy theory prompt someone to harbor hatred toward another group of people? Many conspiracy theories such as QAnon, the Great Replacement, and the various theories about the Rothschild family, will position someone as a villain. This is called scapegoating and can lead to acts of violence against those groups. These theories are especially dangerous. Conspiracy theories about aliens or the Kennedy Assassination are probably relatively harmless.

Once you’ve figured out whether or not the conspiracy theory is dangerous, ask what the conspiracy theory wants someone to do. Edgar Welch was so convinced that children were being trafficked beneath the Comet Ping Pong pizzeria in Washington D.C. that he opened fire on the restaurant. Researchers Michael Jensen and Sheehan Kane created a map showcasing all the criminal complaints against believers in the QAnon conspiracy theory (read more). Many participants in the January 6th riot believed a conspiracy theory about a stolen election. Identifying what an online conspiracy theory wants someone to do offline can be an important step in figuring out the danger level.

Some conspiracy theories may lead to more extreme beliefs. While beliefs that Kennedy was assassinated by the CIA or Mafia are not necessarily worth having an intervention about, some beliefs may lead to more extreme views. Knowing when to have the conversation. If the individual starts accelerating their rhetoric, spinning out more elaborate conspiracies, or becoming increasingly upset, it may be a signal to have a conversation.

Will the conspiracy theorist end up more paranoid or fearful if you don’t have a conversation about their conspiracy beliefs? Or are there beliefs fairly stable? Try to ascertain the dangers or challenges of the beliefs before deciding whether or not to have a discussion.

Threat level HIGH

The Great Replacement is a racist, white supremacist conspiracy theory contending that immigrants are being deliberately shipped in to replace white people by the Democratic Party and European leaders. This is a hateful conspiracy theory that could lead someone to commit acts of violence.

Threat Level MEDIUM

The Great Reset is a rambling conspiracy theory espoused by Alex Jones and Glenn Beck, which asserts that global elites are deliberately using COVID lockdowns and climate disaster as a way to secure power and wealth. While this theory can easily metastasize, it can also manifest as generalized hostility or concern toward elites. Certainly worth keeping an eye on this theory.

Threat Level HIGH

QAnon is a very dangerous conspiracy theory because it is addictive. Individuals who start “doing their own research” as part of the QAnon movement can quickly become radicalized through social media. Many of the January 6th rioters were wearing QAnon clothing and waving QAnon flags while fighting police. The theory is vast and exciting for some because it feels like taking action in a hostile world. But QAnon can lead to a family member or friend being lost to the conspiracy theory or to criminal acts inspired by it. People who believe too deeply in QAnon have committed acts of violence including murder, infanticide, and suicide.

Threat Level MEDIUM

Conspiracy theories about the New World Order used to be far more common and have now evolved into fears of a Deep State. While such fears are not entirely without some merit in a time of government overreach and surveillance, the explanations of a New World Order controlling events are not necessarily as dangerous if kept in isolation. Keep an eye out for escalation of anger at global elites and try to quarantine such conspiracy theories so they don’t become more extreme, violent, or racist. If your loved one begins expressing anger at Jews or other groups who are believed to control the world, it might be time for a conversation about the danger and impact of conspiracy beliefs.

Threat Level LOW

Like all the theories mentioned here, any conspiracy beliefs should be monitored. Individuals who are afraid of or obsessed by the Illuminati are probably in less danger as long as those theories don’t include anti-Semitism or explicit outrage at particular groups or individuals. Most conspiracy theories about the Illuminati are based in misunderstood historical events but could easily evolve into dangerous theories about Jewish cabals controlling world events.

Threat Level LOW

Beliefs in UFO coverups by the US government are widespread but usually harmless. Nobody is planning to raid Area 51, and the theory typically doesn’t target individuals or groups with vitriol or scapegoating. Certainly, too much obsession with UFO phenomena may be unhealthy as in any obsession, but this group of theories are usually benign. Moreover, there is much of scientific and social interest in the UFO/UAP phenomena that are not dangerous ideas but curiosity.

Threat Level LOW

Among conspiracist beliefs, the idea that Kennedy was assassinated by a shadowy cabal within the CIA or Mafia (or both) is one of the most common beliefs. The Kennedy Assassination continues to fascinate Americans all these years later with books, films, and podcasts still attempting to figure out what happened. Most Americans believe there is something unusual about Kennedy’s assassination, and such beliefs are typically benign speculation. Although these conspiracy theories can certainly serve as a gateway to more dangerous conspiracy theories such as QAnon, the general belief in a conspiracy to kill Kennedy is usually not that dangerous.

Threat Level HIGH

COVID conspiracy theories typically center on government lockdowns and vaccination efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic, targeting health officials and government agencies. While most conspiracy theories reflect anxieties about government or State machinations, the cluster of conspiracy theories about COVID include fears of mind control through vaccination and 5G technology, which greatly impacted public health efforts to mitigate the pandemic. Such beliefs prevented many Americans from getting vaccinated, leading to many unnecessary deaths. While vaccination is a personal choice predicated on religious or personal beliefs, conspiracy theories are a tragic reason not to trust health officials and scientists, and the certainty of another major pandemic means this conspiracy theory will almost certainly continue to plague America.

Threat Level HIGH

Conspiracy theories about the 2020 elections were spread by President Donald Trump and his allies, leading directly to the January 6th riot, which ruined many Americans’ lives. Beliefs that one group or cadre of government officials are manipulating the democratic process without any substantial evidence are extremely dangerous if they prompt individuals to arm themselves, monitor ballots and voting locations, and target officials. During the run-up to the 2024 elections, candidate Donald Trump has already begun calling for such actions.